Daily Ag Business Briefing, Nov. 2: Storm slows harvest, China trade gap, 2027 ARC/PLC sign-up opens

This is the Monday morning edition, published before U.S. futures trading opens for the day. Prices below are overnight levels reported by Reuters, not settlements.

Markets overnight: bargain buying in corn and soybeans

Corn and soybean futures started the week modestly higher after weeks of selling drew in bargain hunters, Reuters reported from early Asian-hours trade. Most-active CBOT corn traded at $4.49½, up 0.4%, with soybeans 0.2% firmer at $12.37¼. Wheat fell 0.3% to $6.01¾, edging back toward the four-month low it hit last week.

Reuters said wheat has dropped nearly 25% from its early-September high as speculators unwound long positions, and that corn is down nearly 20% from its September peak. Expectations of more Russian wheat on the world market are adding pressure. Reuters sources said Russia let grain ships leave the Sea of Azov last week for the first time since July 10. CFTC data showed big speculators added to their net short in wheat in the week ended Oct. 27 and flipped to a net short in corn.

For Friday’s settlements and the drivers behind corn’s fifth straight weekly loss and the cattle selloff, see our week-ahead market outlook. For official settlements, see CME Group.

Weather: a big storm slows harvest

DTN meteorologist John Baranick said a strong system will move into the Plains today with widespread showers and thunderstorms, then cross the country through the week. Combined with weekend rain, DTN expects 1 to 2 inches across much of the country, with pockets of 2 to 4 inches where thunderstorms hit. Gusts of 35 to 45 mph are possible across the Plains, Midwest and Delta, and the Central and Southern Plains face a severe-weather risk today, with tornadoes possible.

The delays should be short, Baranick wrote. Cooler, mostly dry and sunny weather is expected behind the system, and the rain should help winter wheat and drought-stressed areas, though one storm will barely dent the D3-D4 drought in parts of the Delta.

Trade: China’s non-soybean buying lags

China bought $7.2 billion of U.S. farm goods other than soybeans from January through September, the weakest total for that period since 2019, Reuters found in a review of Chinese customs data. Beijing’s pledge calls for $17 billion a year starting in 2026, with this year prorated. Corn, sorghum and beef are the weak spots. DTN said U.S. soybean export commitments are 80% above a year ago, while corn commitments trail last year by 34%. Read our full breakdown: China’s $17 billion farm pledge, by commodity.

Farm programs: 2027 ARC/PLC window opens

USDA’s Farm Service Agency opens 2027 ARC and PLC election and enrollment today. The window runs through March 15, 2027. The 2026 sign-up closes Dec. 11, and FSA says farms that miss it get no 2026 payment. Producers who signed the new 2026-2031 multi-year contract do not need to enroll again. Our step-by-step checklist covers the details.

Land: auction season heats up

This winter could bring the busiest farmland auction season since 2022, DTN reported, citing Midwest brokers who say stronger grain prices and less trade uncertainty are coaxing sellers back. Iowa Appraisal’s Jim Rothermich told DTN his firm’s auction acreage through August was nearly 55,000 acres, close to its 2022-2023 pace. Brokers also cautioned that buyers are more selective with higher interest rates and tight margins, and that any distressed sales are more likely in early 2027.

Tech: USDA turns to NASA for crop data

USDA and NASA signed an agreement Oct. 24 to bring satellite data and machine learning into USDA’s acreage and yield statistics. It follows a NASS correction to September corn yield data for Kansas and Nebraska. Read what it means for crop reports.

What to watch

• Today, 4 p.m. ET: NASS Crop Progress, with harvest pace before the storm. Earlier, at 11 a.m. ET, export inspections. At 3 p.m. ET, USDA’s Fats and Oils and Grain Crushings reports.
• Tuesday, Nov. 3: Election Day. DTN plans a post-election webinar for agriculture Wednesday at 10 a.m. ET.
• Thursday, Nov. 5, 8:30 a.m. ET: USDA weekly export sales.
• Tuesday, Nov. 10, noon ET: WASDE and Crop Production.

Nothing here is trading advice. Find more in our Markets section.