4WD Tractor Sales Rise 7.7% in October as Combines Fall 9.6%: What AEM’s Numbers and Dealer Inventories Mean for Buyers

October brought a small lift for big tractors in an otherwise slow year for farm equipment sales. Data released Tuesday by the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM) showed U.S. four-wheel-drive tractor retail sales of 337 units, up 7.7% from 313 a year earlier. Two-wheel-drive tractors of 100 horsepower and up rose 3.2% to 2,171.

The rest of the report was weaker. Total U.S. farm tractor sales slipped 0.5% to 17,242, and self-propelled combine sales fell 9.6% to 340, according to AEM. Successful Farming reported that Canada was also lower in October, with tractor sales down 4.2% and combine sales down 7.5%.

What it means if you’re shopping

AEM’s numbers are preliminary retail sales reported by member manufacturers. They show the market as a whole, not what any one dealer has on hand. Still, two things stand out for buyers this winter.

1. The big-tractor market may be close to the bottom. One month of gains does not make a trend, but 4WD and high-horsepower tractors are the categories most tied to row-crop income. Curt Blades, senior vice president at AEM, called October’s 4WD gain “a welcome bright spot,” Successful Farming reported. He also said trade questions are keeping the farm market volatile. That matches our Nov. 10 report on CNH, which called 2026 the bottom of the cycle in its third-quarter results.

2. Inventory differs by size class. AEM also reports how many units were in inventory at the start of each month. We compared those figures with each category’s average monthly sales so far in 2026 (year-to-date sales divided by 10 months). These are rough US Farm News calculations, not AEM figures:

• Under 40 hp: 61,339 units in inventory, about 6.4 months of this year’s average sales.
• 40 to 100 hp: 26,353 units, about 6.3 months.
• 100+ hp 2WD: 7,358 units, about 5.6 months.
• 4WD: 578 units, about 3.2 months.
• Combines: 649 units, about 2.3 months.

In practice, buyers looking at compact, utility and mid-size tractors may find more units on lots and more room to negotiate. For big 4WD tractors and combines, the stock is thinner, so trading for a specific configuration may take more lead time. Prices and deals vary by brand and dealer, so treat these figures as background for your negotiation.

The October numbers in detail

• 2WD under 40 hp: 9,618 sold, down 0.6%; year to date 95,731, down 12.9%.
• 2WD 40 to 100 hp: 5,116, down 2.4%; year to date 41,620, down 7.4%.
• 2WD 100+ hp: 2,171, up 3.2%; year to date 13,170, down 13.1%.
• 4WD: 337, up 7.7%; year to date 1,785, down 19%.
• Total tractors: 17,242, down 0.5%; year to date 152,306, down 11.6% from 172,204.
• Combines: 340, down 9.6%; year to date 2,780, down 9.1% from 3,059.

Timing a purchase: tax and used values

Year-end is when many farms decide whether to trade machinery, and sales data is only one input. If you are weighing a 2026 purchase for depreciation, read our year-end farm tax planning guide and talk with your tax preparer before you sign. If you plan to trade or buy used, used tractor and planter auction values were still rising in October, which affects both your trade-in value and the price of used alternatives. See our used equipment values report.

What to watch

• AEM’s November report, due in December, will show whether the 4WD gain was a one-month blip.
• Dec. 10 WASDE: crop price direction will drive farmers’ willingness to buy in early 2027.
• Trade talks: AEM pointed to trade uncertainty as a source of volatility for the farm economy.