Daily Ag Business Briefing: Ranchland Values Climb, Sorghum Crop Shrinks 37%, Missouri River Barge Season Ends Early

Grain markets settled down after the USDA reports, a Federal Reserve survey showed Plains farm finances easing a little, and drought is cutting both the sorghum crop and the Missouri River barge season. Here is the farm-business rundown for Thursday, Nov. 12, 2026.

Markets close (Wednesday, Nov. 11)

Wheat had the best day. According to 680 KFEQ’s closing report, December Chicago wheat rose 6¾ cents to $5.99½ and December Kansas City wheat gained 5¼ cents to $6.39½. Brownfield described the move as fund and technical buying in a deeply oversold market. It noted that U.S.-Russia-Ukraine peace talks made little visible progress, so Black Sea grain exports are likely to stay restricted. January soybeans added 2¾ cents to $12.30¾ and December soybean meal gained $3.20, 680 KFEQ said. December corn eased a penny to $4.48 on profit taking after Tuesday’s rally.

Brownfield said China’s customs data put October soybean imports at 7.35 million metric tons, a seven-month low. It also said Brazil’s ANEC raised its November soybean export estimate to 4.37 million tons. In livestock, November feeder cattle gained $2.27 to $332.62, their third higher session in a row, while December live cattle slipped 22½ cents to $218.97 and December lean hogs rose 22½ cents to $56.02, 680 KFEQ reported. For official settlements, use CME Group agriculture markets.

Business items

1. Kansas City Fed: ranchland up almost 10%, loan rates edge higher

The bank’s third-quarter lender survey found farm income and loan repayment still falling, but at the slowest pace since early 2024. Irrigated cropland rose 5%, and average rates reached about 7% on real estate loans and 7.5% on operating loans. Oklahoma lenders reported more stress. Full story: what the survey means before your renewal meeting.

2. Sorghum crop shrinks to 273.7 million bushels

NASS cut the national sorghum yield to 52.4 bushels and Kansas to 59, leaving production 37% below 2025. USDA also lowered projected exports to 125 million bushels, so ending stocks rose. Details: the state-by-state numbers and the PLC angle.

3. Missouri River navigation season ends two weeks early

The Army Corps of Engineers is ending navigation flow support at the river’s mouth on Nov. 15 instead of Dec. 1 and reducing Gavins Point releases to 9,000 cfs. Grain that misses the last barges will have to move by rail or truck. Read: what the early shutdown means for shippers.

4. Farm bill and E15: corn growers push for December

National Corn Growers Association President Matt Frostic told Brownfield that the next two weeks will decide whether Congress can pass both a farm bill and year-round E15 sales nationwide in December. With Congress and the ag committees changing hands, he called it “real go time” and said there is no immediate fallback if the farm bill stalls. Agri-Pulse reported that Senate Ag Chairman John Boozman said bipartisan talks are continuing, including a possible two-year compromise raised by Sen. Jim Justice. Background: the lame-duck farm bill fight.

5. Jones Act waiver for fuel and fertilizer expires Nov. 15

Colin Grabow of the Cato Institute told Brownfield the waiver let foreign-flagged ships carry fuel and fertilizer between U.S. ports. He said that included 14 fertilizer shipments, many of them ammonia moved in propane tankers that the U.S.-built fleet does not have. The current 90-day extension runs out Nov. 15, so watch for any renewal if you are pricing spring nitrogen.

6. Big tractors post a rare gain; LFP drought payments

AEM said U.S. 4WD tractor sales rose 7.7% in October, but total tractor sales are still down 11.6% for the year. See our sales and inventory breakdown. Ranchers in drought counties have until March 1, 2027 to apply for 2026 Livestock Forage Disaster Program payments, which now start after four weeks of D2 drought. Our LFP application guide lists the forms.

What to watch

• Today: EIA’s weekly ethanol data, which Brownfield said comes out Thursday this week, and the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor.
• Friday, Nov. 13: USDA Weekly Export Sales, moved for Veterans Day, and CONAB’s updated Brazil crop estimates.
• Nov. 15: Missouri River navigation support ends at the mouth; the Jones Act waiver extension expires.
• Nov. 16: fall-seeded crop acreage reporting deadline, according to the Kiowa County, Colo., USDA Service Center.
• Dec. 10: next WASDE and Crop Production reports. Dec. 11: 2026 ARC/PLC deadline.