USDA Will Use an AI Tool to Screen the Nov. 10 Crop Report After September’s Corn Data Error

The U.S. Department of Agriculture plans to put an artificial intelligence tool to work on one of the most market-moving reports it publishes. Officials told Reuters that the agency’s own AI tool will screen next Tuesday’s Crop Production report for anomalies, after a September data error in Kansas and Nebraska corn shook confidence among growers and traders.

Hutchins, USDA’s under secretary for research, education and economics, said in a Thursday interview reported by Reuters that the agency determined the tool would have caught the September problem. “I’m very bullish on the fact that we’ll be able to utilize these tools in the future to help us avoid these kinds of really, truly unfortunate errors,” he said.

Why it matters on the farm

USDA’s monthly yield and production numbers drive futures prices, cash bids and the revenue guarantees that underpin many marketing and insurance decisions. When a number has to be revised after the fact, the price move it triggered doesn’t get refunded. The National Corn Growers Association said last month that the September errors were unacceptable, Reuters reported, and an Indiana broker quoted by Reuters said USDA’s reports “have become so erratic.” A second layer of checking is aimed at stopping that kind of whiplash before it starts.

What went wrong in September

According to a NASS notice issued Oct. 24, a review prompted by concerns after the October report found that incorrect acreage weights were used when combining irrigated and non-irrigated objective yield samples for Kansas and Nebraska. The bad weights threw off September’s counts of plants and ears in both states, and in the 10-state averages, which then carried through to the Kansas, Nebraska and U.S. yield forecasts.

NASS’s corrected September figures were:

• Kansas: 118 bushels per acre, 3 bushels lower than first published.
• Nebraska: 182 bushels per acre, 5 bushels higher.
• United States: 178.8 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushel.

NASS said its October yield and production forecasts were reviewed and left unchanged. AgWeb noted that October’s national corn yield stood at a record 181.2 bushels per acre.

Lance Honig, who chairs NASS’s Agricultural Statistics Board, told Reuters the problem came from a computer file that combined the irrigated and dryland data incorrectly, and that Kansas and Nebraska were hit because so much of their corn is irrigated. In an interview with AgriTalk reported by AgWeb, Honig stressed that the field samples themselves were sound and the issue was entirely in how they were weighted together. “There was no issue with the data that was gathered at the field level,” he told Reuters.

How the AI check fits in

Hutchins described the tool to Reuters as a backstop that looks for anomalies the normal review might miss, and said it will add to the agency’s validation rather than replace it. He also said the September mistake was not tied to staffing losses at USDA. NASS separately said in October that it would add pre-publication checks on acreage weights and objective yield calculations.

This is part of a broader push. Reuters noted that USDA has already announced a pilot to lean more on technology for acreage and yield estimates as survey response rates fall, and we covered the agency’s satellite and AI crop-report plans with NASA earlier this month.

The practical takeaway

For growers, an AI screen doesn’t change what goes into the report: the surveys and field samples are the same. What it may change is the odds of a correction weeks later. Until the new process has a track record, it still makes sense to:

• Avoid betting your whole marketing plan on one report day; spread sales or use orders at set price levels.
• Compare USDA’s state yields with what you and your neighbors are actually seeing in the combine.
• Watch for NASS notices after a report, which is where corrections are announced.

Data questions aren’t limited to crop production. Reuters reported that analysts this week also questioned a monthly USDA soybean crush report showing a wide gap between soybeans crushed and meal produced in Iowa, and USDA said it would revise if needed next month. For what the trade expects Tuesday, see our week-ahead market preview.

Frequently asked questions

When is the report the AI tool will check?

USDA’s Crop Production report is due Nov. 10, 2026, and officials told Reuters the AI tool will be used on it.

Does the AI tool replace USDA’s surveys?

No. Hutchins said it is an extra check for anomalies and adds to, rather than replaces, the existing validation process.

Were the October numbers affected by the September error?

NASS said it rechecked the October data and methods and left October’s yield and production forecasts as published.